Market Context
DDR5 Market Trend
↑ Rising
TrendForce (Jul 31): 3Q26 conventional DRAM contracts +13–18% QoQ still holds; SK Hynix confirmed realized DRAM pricing up 30% QoQ in its Q2 print
DDR4 Spot Trend
↓ First Pullback
Spot prices fell ~5% this week — the first decline in nearly a year — as Chinese channel inventory clears; DDR5 sees modest China-channel relief too
HBM Availability
Allocated
Micron confirms HBM sold out through 2026, joining Samsung and SK Hynix; SK Hynix began HBM4 mass shipments in Q2, ramping through H2
Supplier Outlook
Post-Earnings Selloff
Samsung ($62B) and SK Hynix (+557% YoY) both posted record Q2 profit, yet both stocks fell as investors weighed capex and China-competition risk
Price Trends$/GB — Trailing 18 Months + 18-Month Forecast
DDR5
HBM3E ÷10
DDR4
Shaded regions = optimistic/pessimistic confidence bands
HBM3E scaled ÷10 for legibility (actual: ~$30/GB)
Sources: TrendForce, spot market indices, DM estimates
Spot PricesDRAM SKU Pricing — Week of Jul 27
DDR5 · 16Gb · 4800/5600 MT/s
$2.26/GB ($4.53)
▲ +4.6% MoM
Prior month: $4.33
SK Hynix confirmed realized DRAM pricing rose 30% QoQ in Q2; TrendForce still anchors 3Q26 contracts at +13–18% QoQ as consumer buyers approach their affordability limit
DDR5 · 32Gb · 6400 MT/s
$2.37/GB ($9.49)
▲ +4.5% MoM
Prior month: $9.08
Server RDIMM demand remains the platform for agentic AI; capacity keeps migrating server-ward as Samsung and SK Hynix both flag 2027 supply gaps widening further
DDR4 · 8Gb (1Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$5.08/GB ($40.66)
▼ -5.0% WoW
Prior week: $42.80
First WoW decline in nearly a year as Chinese channel inventory clears; still up sharply on a trailing-year basis and CXMT is pivoting away from legacy DDR4 toward DDR5/HBM
DDR4 · 16Gb (2Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$4.82/GB ($77.14)
▼ -5.0% WoW
Prior week: $81.20
Pulls back off last week’s record $81.20 print — the same inventory-clearing dynamic hitting the 8Gb SKU, though legacy supply remains structurally tight
LPDDR5X · Mobile · Q3 Contract
~$25/GB
▲ +3% QoQ
Prior: ~$24/GB
Smartphone vendors staying conservative on procurement per TrendForce as handset retail prices continue absorbing higher LPDRAM costs
HBM4 · 36GB 12-High Stack
~$500/stack
■ Allocation Only
Entire 2026 output sold out to hyperscalers
SK Hynix began HBM4 mass shipments in Q2, ramping through H2; Micron confirms its own HBM capacity is sold out through 2026 alongside Samsung and SK Hynix
Supplier IntelSamsung · SK Hynix · Micron
S
Samsung
KRX: 005930
Q2 operating profit hits a record 89.5 trillion won ($62B), up more than 19-fold YoY, on revenue of 171.5 trillion won ($119B) — semiconductors alone contributed 89.2 trillion won, or 99.7% of total profit
Shares fell this week despite the record print as investors pivot from near-term earnings to long-term capex sustainability and rising Chinese competition, including CXMT’s blockbuster Shanghai debut
Memory executive: “demand growth is outpacing our efforts” — company expects the supply-demand gap to widen further in 2027; construction on a second Texas fab (2030 target) to begin before year-end, with five major hyperscalers now under long-term supply agreements
H
SK Hynix
NASDAQ: SKHY
Q2 operating profit surges 557% YoY to a record 60.54 trillion won on revenue of 79.32 trillion won (+257% YoY) — both records, but both missed consensus (64T won profit, ~84T won revenue); shares fell 9.6%
HBM4 mass shipments began in Q2 and will ramp through the second half; Reuters reports the shortfall partly reflects HBM4 revenue recognition pushed into later quarters rather than weaker underlying demand
Confirmed realized DRAM pricing rose 30% QoQ in the quarter — pricing power stayed intact even as shipment timing disappointed the market
M
Micron
NASDAQ: MU
Confirms its HBM output is sold out through calendar 2026, matching the allocation dynamic already disclosed by Samsung and SK Hynix — all three suppliers now fully committed on the highest-margin product line
CXMT’s 466–470% first-day Shanghai debut “spooked Micron” and triggered a Capitol Hill probe into China’s fast-scaling domestic DRAM ambitions
Shares remain caught in the broader memory-sector bear-market drawdown alongside Samsung and SK Hynix, even as the legacy DDR4 rally that has powered recent quarters shows its first sign of cooling
IndustryBroader DRAM & Memory News
Pricing
DDR4 spot prices fall roughly 5% this week — the first pullback in nearly a year — as Chinese channel inventory clears, while TrendForce’s Jul 31 update still anchors 3Q26 conventional DRAM contracts at +13–18% QoQ
SK Hynix’s own Q2 results confirm realized DRAM pricing up 30% QoQ, so the DDR4 spot pullback looks like a short-term inventory clear-out rather than a demand reversal. The contract curve keeps climbing even as one narrow spot corner cools for the first time since the rally began.
Capacity & Competition
China’s ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) surges as much as 470% on its Jul 27 Shanghai STAR Market debut, raising roughly $8.6B and briefly becoming one of China’s most valuable listed companies
CXMT held a 7.67% share of the global DRAM market in 2025 and plans to use IPO proceeds to expand wafer output. The debut rattled Micron enough to draw a Capitol Hill probe into China’s memory ambitions — the clearest sign yet that the alternative-supply story from last week (CXMT pivoting toward DDR5/HBM) is becoming a capital-markets story too.
Equities
Samsung and SK Hynix both posted record Q2 results this week, yet both stocks fell as investors weighed capex plans and China-competition risk more heavily than the earnings beats themselves
A semiconductor analyst framed the shift bluntly: the market is moving “from short-term earnings to long-term sustainability.” That reframing, combined with CXMT’s debut, suggests the bear-market drawdown noted last week has less to do with memory demand and more to do with how durable the current pricing regime looks past 2027.
Cash Generation
The five largest memory makers — Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Kioxia, and SanDisk — generated more than $90B in combined free cash flow last quarter as DRAM and NAND prices rose 50–60%
That cash is funding the $518B Samsung/SK Hynix joint investment in four new Korean memory fabs and an HBM hub, plus Samsung’s incoming second Texas fab — but none of it lands as shipped wafers before 2027 at the earliest, keeping near-term supply exactly as tight as before.
HBM Architecture
SK Hynix began HBM4 mass shipments in Q2 and is ramping through H2, while Micron separately confirms its own HBM output is sold out through all of 2026
With all three major suppliers now fully allocated on HBM, the marginal swing factor for 2027 pricing shifts to how fast CXMT and other Chinese suppliers can move up the value chain from conventional DDR5 — a transition this week’s IPO frenzy suggests investors are now pricing years earlier than expected.