Market Context
DDR5 Market Trend
↑ Rising
TrendForce still anchors 3Q26 conventional DRAM contracts at +13–18% QoQ; suppliers have now booked out all of 2027 DRAM and HBM capacity months ahead of schedule (reported Aug 3)
DDR4 Spot Trend
↑ Stabilizing
Mainstream DDR4 (1Gx8, 3200) spot rebounded ~1.4% to $42.08 the week of Jul 28 after the prior dip; TrendForce’s Aug 5 bulletin notes DDR3/DDR4/DDR5 inquiries picking up
HBM Availability
Allocated
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are all developing 16-Hi HBM4 for NVIDIA’s Q4 orders; SK Hynix yields approach mature levels and Samsung guides Q3 HBM4 revenue near 3x Q2
Supplier Outlook
Supercycle Intact
BofA projects 2026 DRAM revenue +51% YoY and NAND +45%, with ASPs +33% and +26%; the debate has shifted from demand to how durable pricing looks past 2027
Price Trends$/GB — Trailing 18 Months + 18-Month Forecast
DDR5
HBM3E ÷10
DDR4
Shaded regions = optimistic/pessimistic confidence bands
HBM3E scaled ÷10 for legibility (actual: ~$30/GB)
Sources: TrendForce, spot market indices, DM estimates
Spot PricesDRAM SKU Pricing — Week of Aug 3
DDR5 · 16Gb · 4800/5600 MT/s
$2.26/GB ($4.53)
▲ +4.6% MoM
Prior month: $4.33
SK Hynix confirmed realized DRAM pricing rose ~30% QoQ in Q2 and TrendForce holds 3Q26 contracts at +13–18% QoQ; with all of 2027 now allocated, the contract curve keeps climbing
DDR5 · 32Gb · 6400 MT/s
$2.37/GB ($9.49)
▲ +4.5% MoM
Prior month: $9.08
Server RDIMM remains the platform for agentic AI; all three majors have booked 2027 capacity, so the 2027 supply gap is being priced years ahead
DDR4 · 8Gb (1Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$5.26/GB ($42.08)
▲ +1.4% WoW
Prior week: $41.50
TrendForce: mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200 spot rose 1.39% to $42.08 the week of Jul 28, rebounding after the prior week’s dip; legacy supply stays structurally tight as CXMT pivots toward DDR5/HBM
DDR4 · 16Gb (2Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$4.88/GB ($78.10)
▲ +1.2% WoW
Prior week: $77.14
Recovers alongside the 8Gb SKU as the inventory clear-out runs its course — DM estimate anchored to TrendForce’s mainstream 1Gx8 rebound
LPDDR5X · Mobile · Q3 Contract
~$25/GB
▲ +3% QoQ
Prior: ~$24/GB
Smartphone vendors stay conservative on procurement per TrendForce as handset prices keep absorbing higher LPDRAM costs; CXMT’s LPDDR5X entry adds a China supply wildcard
HBM4 · 36GB 12-High Stack
~$500/stack
■ Allocation Only
2026 output sold out; 2027 now allocated too
SK Hynix began HBM4 mass production in Q2 with yields approaching mature levels; Samsung guides Q3 HBM4 revenue ~3x Q2. Reference (Jul): HBM3 ~$200/24GB, HBM3E ~$300/36GB, HBM4 ~$500
Supplier IntelSamsung · SK Hynix · Micron
S
Samsung
KRX: 005930
Joins SK Hynix and Micron in full-scale development of 16-Hi HBM4 for NVIDIA’s Q4 orders, and guides Q3 2026 HBM4 revenue to roughly 3x Q2 levels
Plans to expand memory production capacity by about 50% in 2026 to chase AI demand; its 2027 DRAM and HBM allocation is already booked out
Second Texas fab underway with a 2030 target and five major hyperscalers under long-term supply agreements, as the supply-demand gap is expected to widen into 2027
H
SK Hynix
KRX: 000660
Began HBM4 mass production in Q2 with yield stability described as approaching mature-generation levels; ramping through H2 as NVIDIA Vera Rubin and AMD MI455X platforms ship
Leads HBM with roughly 50–55% share and has pulled its Yongin cluster’s first cleanroom forward from May to February 2027, prioritizing HBM4 and HBM4E
Confirmed realized DRAM pricing rose ~30% QoQ in Q2; with 2027 capacity now fully allocated, its pricing power is effectively set years ahead
M
Micron
NASDAQ: MU
In the running for NVIDIA’s 16-Hi HBM4 orders alongside Samsung and SK Hynix, though it holds the smallest HBM share at roughly 5–10%
HBM output sold out through 2026, and 2027 DRAM/HBM allocation has now been wrapped early across all three majors
Watching China’s CXMT climb to ~7–8% global DRAM share; CXMT’s Shanghai debut earlier drew a Capitol Hill probe into China’s memory ambitions
IndustryBroader DRAM & Memory News
Pricing
Mainstream DDR4 spot rebounds ~1.4% to $42.08 the week of Jul 28 as DDR3/DDR4/DDR5 inquiries pick up, per TrendForce; a fresh DRAM Market Bulletin followed on Aug 5
The rebound reverses the prior week’s dip and suggests the early-August softness was inventory clearing, not a demand reversal. TrendForce still anchors 3Q26 conventional DRAM contracts at +13–18% QoQ, so the contract curve keeps climbing even as spot chops sideways.
Capacity & Allocation
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have wrapped all of 2027’s DRAM and HBM capacity allocation months ahead of schedule, with hyperscalers taking the bulk under long-term contracts
The sold-out horizon just extended a full year: 2026 was already gone, and now 2027 is spoken for too, leaving smaller buyers waiting on 2027–28 capacity expansions. It is the clearest signal yet that AI demand, not the memory cycle, is setting the supply clock.
HBM Architecture
All three majors are developing 16-Hi HBM4 for NVIDIA’s Q4 orders; Samsung guides Q3 HBM4 revenue ~3x Q2 and SK Hynix pulls its Yongin cleanroom forward to February 2027
HBM4 is moving from ramp to volume just as Vera Rubin and MI455X ship. With all three suppliers fully allocated, the marginal 2027 swing factor is execution on 16-Hi yields, not whether the demand exists.
Outlook
Bank of America projects 2026 global DRAM revenue up 51% YoY and NAND up 45%, with average selling prices rising 33% and 26% respectively
The forecast frames the supercycle in revenue terms: this is a price-led boom, not just a volume one. The open question the market keeps asking is how much of that ASP gain survives past 2027, once Korean mega-fab and CXMT capacity finally lands.
Capacity & Competition
China’s CXMT has climbed to roughly 7–8% of the global DRAM market — now the fourth-largest maker — shipping DDR5 up to 8,000 Mbps in Lenovo systems and targeting 30% share by 2030
CXMT’s rise is the structural counterweight to the allocation squeeze: every point of share it adds in commodity DDR5 frees the incumbents to push more wafers toward HBM. Its climb up the value chain is the single biggest variable in how durable post-2027 pricing looks — bottlenecked mainly by access to advanced chipmaking tools.