Market Context
DDR5 Market Trend
→ Moderating
Spot gains narrowing; buyers cautious as prices test demand ceiling
DDR4 Market Trend
↑ Rebounding
Spot +3.70% WoW after prior declines; eTT entering consolidation
HBM Availability
Sold Out
All 3 suppliers at zero spare capacity; HBM4E roadmap accelerating
Industry Milestone
All 3 @ $1T
Samsung, SK Hynix & Micron each cross $1 trillion market cap
Price Trends$/GB — Trailing 18 Months + 18-Month Forecast
DDR5
HBM3E ÷10
DDR4
Shaded regions = optimistic/pessimistic confidence bands
HBM3E scaled ÷10 for legibility (actual: ~$30/GB)
Sources: TrendForce, spot market indices, DM estimates
Spot PricesDRAM SKU Pricing — Week of May 26
DDR5 · 16Gb · 4800/5600 MT/s
$1.95/GB ($3.90)
▶ Moderating
Prior week: $3.84
Gains narrowing; buyers probing trend rather than releasing real demand
DDR5 · 32Gb · 6400 MT/s
$2.05/GB ($8.20)
▲ +2.0% WoW
Prior week: $8.04
Server DRAM; LTAs anchoring contract demand; spot more sluggish
DDR4 · 8Gb (1Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$4.20/GB ($33.6)
▲ +3.70% WoW
Prior week: $32.40
Spot rebound after prior declines; eTT DDR4 entering consolidation phase
DDR4 · 16Gb (2Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$3.75/GB ($60.0)
▲ +1.8% WoW
Prior week: $58.9
2Gx8 specification rebounding alongside 1Gx8; both recovering from dip
LPDDR5X · Mobile · Q2 Contract
~$20/GB
▶ Steady
Q1 baseline: ~$11/GB
+78–83% QoQ still holding; smartphone makers trimming production volumes
HBM4 · 36GB 12-High Stack
~$500/stack
▲ Allocation Only
All 3 suppliers fully booked through 2026
HBM4E samples now shipping from Samsung; next allocation cycle begins
Supplier IntelSamsung · SK Hynix · Micron
S
Samsung
KRX: 005930
Ships industry-first HBM4E 12-layer samples: 3.6 TB/s bandwidth, 48 GB capacity, 16% better energy efficiency than HBM4
Crosses $1 trillion market cap on May 6; stock near all-time highs as HBM4E samples cement next-gen roadmap lead
HBM4 yield at 1c DRAM process targeting 80%; integrated memory + foundry + packaging chain cited as structural edge
H
SK Hynix
KRX: 000660
Joins $1 trillion club on May 26 — market cap now $1.099T, up 240% YTD; narrows gap with Samsung to record-low
Confidential US ADR filing targets H2 2026; $10–14B raise to fund Indiana plant + Yongin cluster EUV expansion
Trimming HBM4 Q2 shipments 30% to build inventory buffer as it ramps toward HBM4E; holds ~70% of Nvidia Vera Rubin allocation
M
Micron
NASDAQ: MU
Crosses $1 trillion market cap on May 27; global fab expansion overview: US + Asia sites all under active ramp
HBM4E will follow JEDEC standard with TSMC logic die; mass production ramp targeted for 2027 — behind Samsung by ~12 months
FQ3 guide $33.5B at 81% gross margin; all 2026 HBM capacity pre-sold as HBM4 36GB 12H ships for Nvidia Vera Rubin
IndustryBroader DRAM & Memory News
TrendForce
DDR5 spot gains narrow as buyers go to sidelines; DDR4 1Gx8 spot +3.70% WoW to $33.60 — market entering consolidation after months of surge
Most spot inquiries are now trend-probing rather than real buying. After multiple consecutive weeks of aggressive DDR5 gains, the market is digesting elevated prices. DDR4 spot recovering suggests supply remains tight but buyer fatigue is setting a ceiling on how fast prices can continue rising.
Goldman Sachs
Samsung + SK Hynix combined 2028 operating profit target raised above 1,000 trillion won — Samsung at 610T, SK Hynix at 454T
Goldman’s revised model assumes the HBM supercycle lasts well into 2028, with structural demand from AI training and inference providing a multi-year pricing floor. The combined projection implies the two Korean suppliers will collectively generate more annual operating income than virtually any industrial company on earth.
TrendForce
PC DRAM contract price momentum slowing as high costs weigh on PC demand — extreme seller’s market phase ending even as Q3 remains elevated
After Q1 contract prices grew ~100% QoQ (double initial forecasts), the pace is decelerating. High memory costs are weakening PC unit sales, reducing buyer urgency. TrendForce still expects prices to remain well above 2025 levels through Q3, but the velocity of hikes is normalizing.
TechInsider
HBM now consuming 23% of total DRAM wafer capacity — structural shift tightening conventional DRAM supply as AI pulls wafers from PC/server pools
As HBM allocation grows, every wafer diverted from DDR5/DDR4 production is one less chip available for the broader market. This structural diversion — not pure demand growth — is now the primary driver of conventional DRAM pricing pressure, and it won’t reverse until greenfield capacity comes online.
TrendForce
Micron sets HBM4E mass production for 2027 with TSMC logic die; SK Hynix pulls forward HBM4E timeline after faster-than-expected progress
The three-way HBM4E race is diverging: Samsung already shipping samples (3.6 TB/s, 48GB), SK Hynix accelerating into H2 2026, and Micron targeting 2027. The 12-month Samsung lead on HBM4E samples vs. Micron’s ramp mirrors the HBM3E gap and suggests Samsung may finally be re-establishing its HBM competitive position after losing ground in 2024–25.