Market Context
DDR5 Market Trend
↑ Rising
TrendForce’s Aug 12 bulletin still anchors 3Q26 conventional DRAM contracts at +13–18% QoQ; all of 2027 DRAM and HBM capacity remains booked out across the three majors
DDR4 Spot Trend
↑ Record High
Mainstream DDR4 (1Gx8, 3200) spot hit $42.45 on Aug 7 — up from roughly $12 eight months ago — another fresh high even as retail and contract pricing lag the spot spike
HBM Availability
Allocated
Samsung’s HBM4 yield reportedly hit ~80% by early August, up from under 60% in February, narrowing SK Hynix’s lead; all 2026 HBM output remains sold out across suppliers
Supplier Outlook
Stocks Diverge From Fundamentals
Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have all fallen >20% from recent highs into a bear market despite record results — Micron’s Q3 revenue more than quadrupled YoY to $41.5B — a profit-taking move, not a demand reversal
Price Trends$/GB — Trailing 18 Months + 18-Month Forecast
DDR5
HBM3E ÷10
DDR4
Shaded regions = optimistic/pessimistic confidence bands
HBM3E scaled ÷10 for legibility (actual: ~$30/GB)
Sources: TrendForce, spot market indices, DM estimates
Spot PricesDRAM SKU Pricing — Week of Aug 10
DDR5 · 16Gb · 4800/5600 MT/s
$2.29/GB ($4.59)
▲ +1.3% WoW
Prior week: $4.53
TrendForce’s Aug 12 bulletin holds 3Q26 contracts at +13–18% QoQ; the contract curve keeps climbing even as memory-supplier equities sell off on profit-taking
DDR5 · 32Gb · 6400 MT/s
$2.40/GB ($9.61)
▲ +1.3% WoW
Prior week: $9.49
Server RDIMM remains the platform for agentic AI; all three majors have booked 2027 capacity, so the 2027 supply gap is still being priced years ahead
DDR4 · 8Gb (1Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$5.31/GB ($42.45)
▲ +0.9% WoW
Prior week: $42.08
Mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200 spot hit $42.45 on Aug 7, another fresh high in a run that has taken the chip from about $12 to $42 in roughly eight months; legacy supply stays structurally tight as CXMT pivots toward DDR5/HBM
DDR4 · 16Gb (2Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$4.92/GB ($78.79)
▲ +0.9% WoW
Prior week: $78.10
Tracks the 8Gb SKU’s move — DM estimate anchored to TrendForce’s mainstream 1Gx8 spot series
LPDDR5X · Mobile · Q3 Contract
~$25.50/GB
▲ +2% QoQ
Prior: ~$25/GB
Smartphone vendors stay conservative on procurement per TrendForce as handset prices keep absorbing higher LPDRAM costs; CXMT’s LPDDR5X entry adds a China supply wildcard
HBM4 · 36GB 12-High Stack
~$500/stack
■ Allocation Only
2026 output sold out; 2027 now allocated too
Samsung’s HBM4 yield reportedly reached ~80% by early August, up from under 60% in February, closing the gap with SK Hynix’s roughly 80% yield. Reference (Jul): HBM3 ~$200/24GB, HBM3E ~$300/36GB, HBM4 ~$500
Supplier IntelSamsung · SK Hynix · Micron
S
Samsung
KRX: 005930
HBM4 yield reportedly reaches ~80%, up from under 60% when mass production began in February, on progress in its thermal compression non-conductive film process
Weighing a move of legacy DRAM/NAND backend packaging to Vietnam to free up domestic Korean lines for HBM4 expansion
Reported operating profit guidance of ~$59B and sales of ~$113B for the quarter — monster numbers — yet the stock fell alongside peers into a broader memory-sector sell-off
H
SK Hynix
KRX: 000660
Holds an estimated 60–70% of Nvidia’s Vera Rubin HBM4 allocation versus Samsung’s 25–30%, still the clear volume leader even as Samsung closes the yield gap
Labor negotiations add a wrinkle to the HBM race just as Samsung’s yield gains intensify competitive pressure heading into 2H
Stock has fallen more than 20% from its recent high alongside Samsung and Micron, part of a sector-wide bear market despite strong underlying results
M
Micron
NASDAQ: MU
Fiscal Q3 revenue more than quadrupled year over year to $41.5B, up from $9.3B, on surging AI data-center memory demand — among the most extraordinary results in the sector this earnings season
Stock down nearly $350B in market value since June 25 despite the blowout quarter, as investors take profits after a 2026 run that pushed memory names sharply higher
HBM capacity remains sold out through calendar 2026 and 2027 DRAM/HBM allocation has been wrapped early across all three majors; still watching China’s CXMT climb toward ~7–8% global DRAM share
IndustryBroader DRAM & Memory News
Stocks vs. Fundamentals
Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have all fallen more than 20% from recent highs into a bear market despite record results — Micron’s revenue more than quadrupled YoY and Samsung guided to ~$59B operating profit
Sector market cap has dropped roughly $1.5 trillion since June 25 as investors take profits after Samsung’s 150% run this year, not because the AI memory story broke. It’s the clearest split yet between what the earnings say and what the stocks are pricing — and a reminder that even a supercycle can correct on valuation alone.
Pricing
Mainstream DDR4 spot hits $42.45 on Aug 7, another fresh high in a run that has taken the chip from about $12 to $42 in roughly eight months
TrendForce’s Aug 12 bulletin still anchors 3Q26 conventional DRAM contracts at +13–18% QoQ. Retail and contract pricing move on a lag, so a tripling spot price does not yet mean a tripled cost for the next PC memory kit — but the gap is the thing to watch closing.
HBM Architecture
Samsung’s HBM4 yield reportedly reaches ~80%, up from under 60% in February, while SK Hynix still holds an estimated 60–70% of Nvidia’s Vera Rubin allocation versus Samsung’s 25–30%
The two-year SK Hynix HBM monopoly is visibly ending on yield, even if volume share hasn’t caught up yet. Samsung is also weighing shipping legacy memory backend work to Vietnam to free domestic lines for HBM4 — the physical-capacity move that turns a yield win into an actual volume gain.
Outlook
Bank of America’s 2026 DRAM revenue +51% YoY and NAND +45% forecast still stands; TrendForce’s Aug 12 bulletin sees no near-term relief in contract pricing
The revenue story and the stock story have decoupled this week — ASPs keep climbing and capacity stays sold out, but equity investors are pricing in a ceiling on margins that the earnings prints haven’t shown yet. That gap is this month’s central DRAM-market question.
Capacity & Competition
China’s CXMT remains at roughly 7–8% of the global DRAM market — the fourth-largest maker — shipping DDR5 up to 8,000 Mbps in Lenovo systems and targeting 30% share by 2030
CXMT’s climb is unchanged this week, but it’s the structural counterweight worth watching against the incumbents’ stock weakness: every point of commodity DDR5 share it takes frees Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to push more wafers toward higher-margin HBM, which is exactly the mix shift the bear-market selloff is questioning whether they can sustain.