Market Context
DDR5 Market Trend
↑ Rising
TrendForce sees 3Q26 conventional DRAM contract prices +13–18% QoQ
DDR4 Spot Trend
↑ Tight
Legacy supply remains constrained as capacity and capital favor server DRAM and HBM
HBM Availability
Allocated
2026 output is effectively committed; 2027 HBM4 negotiations favor suppliers
Supplier Outlook
Capital Rush
SK Hynix raises $26.5B; Micron lifts U.S. investment plan above $250B
Price Trends$/GB — Trailing 18 Months + 18-Month Forecast
DDR5
HBM3E ÷10
DDR4
Shaded regions = optimistic/pessimistic confidence bands
HBM3E scaled ÷10 for legibility (actual: ~$30/GB)
Sources: TrendForce, spot market indices, DM estimates
Spot PricesDRAM SKU Pricing — Week of Jul 6
DDR5 · 16Gb · 4800/5600 MT/s
$2.11/GB ($4.22)
▲ +4.5% MoM
Prior month: $4.04
3Q26 contract prices seen +13–18% QoQ per TrendForce as server demand absorbs supply
DDR5 · 32Gb · 6400 MT/s
$2.21/GB ($8.84)
▲ +4.2% MoM
Prior month: $8.48
Server DRAM; RDIMM consumption robust through 2027 per TrendForce; LTAs capping some gains
DDR4 · 8Gb (1Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$4.49/GB ($35.90)
▲ +3.2% WoW
Prior week: $34.8
Mainstream spot continues climbing; DDR5 migration pulling supply from commodity pool
DDR4 · 16Gb (2Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$3.99/GB ($63.9)
▲ +3.1% WoW
Prior week: $62.0
Enterprise procurement cautious but constrained; spot and contract divergence widening
LPDDR5X · Mobile · Q3 Contract
~$23/GB
▲ +5% QoQ
Prior: ~$22/GB
Brands raising retail prices in 3Q to offset LPDRAM costs per TrendForce; unit demand at risk
HBM4 · 36GB 12-High Stack
~$500/stack
■ Allocation Only
Entire 2026 output sold out to hyperscalers
UBS pegs SK Hynix ~70% of Nvidia Rubin allocation; Samsung HBM sales to triple vs. 2025
Supplier IntelSamsung · SK Hynix · Micron
S
Samsung
KRX: 005930
Official Q2 pre-earnings guidance points to approximately 89.4T won of consolidated operating profit, keeping memory ASPs at the center of the record print
The full Q2 call is scheduled for July 30; HBM4 mix, conventional DRAM allocation and second-half capex are the key variables
Samsung and SK Hynix are pairing long-duration supply commitments with a broader Korean semiconductor buildout, preserving pricing power while capacity catches up
H
SK Hynix
NASDAQ: SKHY
Nasdaq ADRs rise 12.8% on debut, opening at $170 and closing at $168.01 after pricing at $149
The $26.5B offering is the largest U.S. share sale by a foreign company and provides fresh funding for advanced packaging and capacity
Q2 results due July 29 now carry a higher bar: investors will look for HBM allocation durability and evidence that conventional DRAM pricing offsets new-capacity costs
M
Micron
NASDAQ: MU
Raises planned U.S. investment above $250B through 2035 and targets domestic production of more than 40% of its DRAM
Pours first concrete at the Clay, New York fab more than a quarter ahead of plan and adds up to $3B for the surrounding semiconductor ecosystem
Strategic agreement with Anthropic links model demand to memory and storage co-design, giving Micron a direct line into next-generation inference requirements
IndustryBroader DRAM & Memory News
Pricing
3Q26 conventional DRAM contract prices are still expected to rise 13–18% QoQ, even as the pace cools
TrendForce’s latest survey shows the market moving from explosive second-quarter increases toward a still-strong but more sustainable rate. Consumer affordability is limiting price pass-through, while server demand and constrained supply keep buyers from regaining leverage.
Capital Markets
SK Hynix’s $26.5B Nasdaq raise and 12.8% first-day gain convert HBM scarcity into balance-sheet capacity
The listing expands U.S. investor access and funds packaging and fab expansion, but those projects will not ease near-term shortages. The transaction therefore strengthens SK Hynix strategically without immediately weakening industry pricing.
U.S. Capacity
Micron raises its domestic investment plan above $250B through 2035 and targets more than 40% of DRAM production in the U.S.
The Clay, New York fab reached first concrete ahead of plan, yet meaningful output remains a multi-year proposition. For buyers, the announcement improves geographic resilience rather than near-term availability; for equipment suppliers, it extends the investment runway well beyond the current cycle.
HBM Architecture
JEDEC’s SPHBM4 standard targets a lower-cost tier of high-bandwidth memory with a narrower 512-bit interface
The design can reduce reliance on expensive interposers and enable organic substrates, widening the set of inference systems that can justify stacked memory. It will not eliminate base-die, TSV or packaging complexity, but it could expand total HBM volumes while creating price segmentation below flagship accelerators.
Alternative Supply
Nanya considers quadrupling 2027 capex to $6.2B as DRAM pricing pushes gross margin toward 79.5%
Nanya’s economics show how far scarcity has spread beyond the top three suppliers. Its DDR4-heavy mix gives OEMs another source for legacy products, but the proposed fab still requires board approval and years to reach full capacity. Near-term relief remains limited.