Market Context
DDR5 Market Trend
↑ Rising
TrendForce (Jul 3): 3Q26 conventional DRAM contracts +13–18% QoQ still holds; consumer affordability remains the cap on further gains
DDR4 Spot Trend
↑ Record High
16GB module spot hits $81.20, +17.5% MoM — new records set daily since first crossing $80 on Jul 16
HBM Availability
Allocated
2026 output sold out; Samsung sees the bottleneck persisting into 2027; UBS pegs SK Hynix ~70% of Nvidia Rubin HBM4 allocation
Supplier Outlook
Pre-Earnings Rally
SK Hynix +14% ahead of its Jul 29 print even as the sector has shed ~$1.5T in value since Jun 25
Price Trends$/GB — Trailing 18 Months + 18-Month Forecast
DDR5
HBM3E ÷10
DDR4
Shaded regions = optimistic/pessimistic confidence bands
HBM3E scaled ÷10 for legibility (actual: ~$30/GB)
Sources: TrendForce, spot market indices, DM estimates
Spot PricesDRAM SKU Pricing — Week of Jul 13
DDR5 · 16Gb · 4800/5600 MT/s
$2.16/GB ($4.33)
▲ +4.8% MoM
Prior month: $4.13
TrendForce (Jul 3) still anchors 3Q26 at +13–18% QoQ; consumer buyers at their affordability limit, so gains are steady rather than accelerating
DDR5 · 32Gb · 6400 MT/s
$2.27/GB ($9.08)
▲ +4.6% MoM
Prior month: $8.68
Server RDIMM demand remains the platform for agentic AI per TrendForce; capacity keeps migrating server-ward through 2027
DDR4 · 8Gb (1Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$5.35/GB ($42.80)
▲ +5.4% WoW
Prior week: $40.60
Legacy melt-up continues — reduced wafer allocation to DDR4 nodes keeps rationing the segment even as CXMT pivots toward DDR5/HBM
DDR4 · 16Gb (2Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$5.08/GB ($81.20)
▲ +0.9% WoW
Prior week: $80.45
First module to clear $80, first crossed Jul 16 and now setting records daily — +17.5% MoM as legacy supply keeps shrinking
LPDDR5X · Mobile · Q3 Contract
~$24/GB
▲ +4% QoQ
Prior: ~$23/GB
Smartphone vendors turning more conservative on procurement per TrendForce as handset retail prices absorb higher LPDRAM costs
HBM4 · 36GB 12-High Stack
~$500/stack
■ Allocation Only
Entire 2026 output sold out to hyperscalers
HBM3E lead times 20–26 weeks; SK Hynix holds ~62% HBM3E share and ~70% of Nvidia Rubin HBM4 allocation per UBS
Supplier IntelSamsung · SK Hynix · Micron
S
Samsung
KRX: 005930
Estimates point to a record ~$59B operating profit and $113B in sales for the quarter, yet shares remain down more than 20% from their high as investors question how much further the AI memory trade can run
Shares slide further on Jul 24 as a broader Kospi tech selloff drags the stock down alongside SK Hynix, extending the sector’s bear-market drawdown
Management continues to flag the HBM supply bottleneck persisting well into 2027; the Q2 call set for Jul 30 will detail HBM4 mix and second-half capex
H
SK Hynix
NASDAQ: SKHY
Shares rocket 14% Tuesday with no company-specific headline, pricing in confidence ahead of the Jul 29 print — consensus calls for 63.45T won operating profit and 82.89T won sales, up 589% and 273% YoY
Sinks 6% alongside Micron on Jul 24 as the Korea-led chip selloff spreads to U.S. memory names, even with one of the sector’s strongest earnings setups still ahead
Holds ~62% of HBM3E supply, and UBS projects ~70% of HBM4 allocation for Nvidia’s Rubin platform in 2026 — the concentration the rest of the industry is spending to break
M
Micron
NASDAQ: MU
FQ3 revenue of $41.46B (+346% YoY) at 85% GAAP gross margin, with Q4 FY26 guided to $50B ± $1B — pricing power intact heading into the DDR4 legacy rally
New strategy now has to hold its own against Samsung and SK Hynix’s combined $575B in facility spending plans as all three suppliers race to convert record profits into future capacity
Shares fell further in the Jul 24 Korea-driven selloff, down alongside SanDisk (-9%) as the memory complex’s bear-market drawdown deepened past 20%
IndustryBroader DRAM & Memory News
Pricing
TrendForce’s Jul 3 forecast still anchors 3Q26 DRAM contracts at +13–18% QoQ, but the constraint has visibly moved this week as DDR4 spot crosses $80 and sets records daily
The legacy segment is now rationing by price rather than allocation alone — the 16GB module printed $81.20 on Jul 22, up 17.5% MoM, while contract pricing growth moderates on affordability. The divergence between a slowing contract curve and an accelerating spot curve is the clearest signal yet that DDR4 supply, not demand, is the binding constraint.
Equities
Sector-wide bear-market drawdown deepens to roughly $1.5T in lost value since Jun 25, even as SK Hynix separately rockets 14% on pre-earnings positioning for its Jul 29 print
SK Hynix and Micron fell another 6% and SanDisk 9% in the Jul 24 Korea-led selloff, showing how quickly sentiment is swinging within the same week. The market is now pricing two competing stories simultaneously — near-term earnings optimism into SK Hynix’s report, and longer-run skepticism that record profits (Samsung’s ~$59B estimate) can keep clearing an ever-higher bar.
Capacity
No durable new memory capacity arrives before late 2026, and Samsung’s own memory leadership still projects the shortage running through at least 2027
Fab construction timelines of 2–3 years mean the $575B in combined Samsung/SK Hynix spending announced this cycle cannot show up in shipped wafers before 2027 at the earliest. Until then, allocation — not price — remains the primary rationing mechanism across both conventional DRAM and HBM.
HBM Architecture
HBM3E still accounts for roughly two-thirds of 2026 HBM shipments as HBM4 ramps, with UBS pegging SK Hynix at ~70% of Nvidia’s Rubin-platform HBM4 allocation
Updated stack pricing shows HBM3E running ~$300 per 36GB stack against ~$500 for a 48GB HBM4 stack, a premium that reflects both the generational jump and the concentration of supply in SK Hynix’s hands. Every wafer committed to the HBM4 qualification ramp is one that never becomes DDR5, keeping the conventional-DRAM squeeze intact regardless of consumer-side softening.
Alternative Supply
CXMT reaches functional, JEDEC-validated parity in DDR4 and early DDR5 but is pivoting fast toward DDR5 and HBM, leaving Nanya and Winbond to absorb record legacy-DDR4 demand
The second tier is capturing share precisely where the big three are deprioritizing capacity: specialized, high-reliability DDR4 parts. As CXMT’s own roadmap shifts away from legacy nodes, the pool of alternative DDR4 suppliers is shrinking even as demand for the node stays structurally strong — reinforcing the price signal already visible in this week’s record spot prints.