Market Context
DDR5 Market Trend
↑ Surging
TrendForce sees 3Q26 contract prices +13–18% QoQ on AI server demand
DDR4 Spot Trend
↑ Rising
Mainstream 8Gb spot near $35.90; tightness now spilling into DDR3
HBM Availability
Sold Out
2026 HBM4 output fully booked; SK Hynix ~70% of Rubin allocation (UBS)
Supplier Outlook
Bear Market
Samsung’s record Q2 print still triggers >20% sector-wide stock selloff
Price Trends$/GB — Trailing 18 Months + 18-Month Forecast
DDR5
HBM3E ÷10
DDR4
Shaded regions = optimistic/pessimistic confidence bands
HBM3E scaled ÷10 for legibility (actual: ~$30/GB)
Sources: TrendForce, spot market indices, DM estimates
Spot PricesDRAM SKU Pricing — Week of Jul 6
DDR5 · 16Gb · 4800/5600 MT/s
$2.11/GB ($4.22)
▲ +4.5% MoM
Prior month: $4.04
3Q26 contract prices seen +13–18% QoQ per TrendForce as server demand absorbs supply
DDR5 · 32Gb · 6400 MT/s
$2.21/GB ($8.84)
▲ +4.2% MoM
Prior month: $8.48
Server DRAM; RDIMM consumption robust through 2027 per TrendForce; LTAs capping some gains
DDR4 · 8Gb (1Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$4.49/GB ($35.90)
▲ +3.2% WoW
Prior week: $34.8
Mainstream spot continues climbing; DDR5 migration pulling supply from commodity pool
DDR4 · 16Gb (2Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$3.99/GB ($63.9)
▲ +3.1% WoW
Prior week: $62.0
Enterprise procurement cautious but constrained; spot and contract divergence widening
LPDDR5X · Mobile · Q3 Contract
~$23/GB
▲ +5% QoQ
Prior: ~$22/GB
Brands raising retail prices in 3Q to offset LPDRAM costs per TrendForce; unit demand at risk
HBM4 · 36GB 12-High Stack
~$500/stack
■ Allocation Only
Entire 2026 output sold out to hyperscalers
UBS pegs SK Hynix ~70% of Nvidia Rubin allocation; Samsung HBM sales to triple vs. 2025
Supplier IntelSamsung · SK Hynix · Micron
S
Samsung
KRX: 005930
Preliminary Q2 results (Jul 7): ~$59B operating profit on ~$113B revenue — record quarter, but stock fell as Deutsche Bank flagged the beat as “only” 6% ahead of consensus
Shares down >20% from recent highs despite the record print, as memory names surrender profit-taking gains after a 150% YTD run
Full-quarter revenue tracking toward 170.47T won, which would mark an all-time company high on the back of the memory ASP supercycle
H
SK Hynix
KRX: 000660
Nasdaq debut set for tomorrow, July 10, under ticker SKHY — up to $29B ADR raise, the largest ADR listing on record, after F-1 filed June 24
Q2 earnings due July 29; consensus calls for 63.45T won operating profit on 82.89T won in sales as the memory supercycle broadens
Shares slide double-digit alongside Samsung as global chip stocks shed ~$1.5T in value since June 25, even as HBM4 Rubin allocation holds near 70% (UBS)
M
Micron
NASDAQ: MU
Record fiscal-quarter profit reported in late June stokes hope Samsung and SK Hynix will post similarly strong Q2 numbers
Shares sink 7% alongside SanDisk and Western Digital as Samsung’s tepid earnings reaction sours sentiment on the entire memory trade
Idaho ID1 fab still not expected online before 2027, capping near-term bit-supply growth even as industry DRAM capex climbs toward $116B in 2026
IndustryBroader DRAM & Memory News
TrendForce
3Q26 conventional DRAM contract prices seen +13–18% QoQ, NAND +10–15% — a moderating pace as consumer affordability limits bite
PC and smartphone customers are hitting their price tolerance ceiling after record-high contract prices, tempering gains versus prior quarters. Server DRAM stays undersupplied, but LTA-governed procurement caps the increases; suppliers keep prioritizing AI-linked LPDRAM and server allocation over consumer SKUs.
Market Reaction
Memory chip stocks fall into a bear market despite record Q2 profits — sector has shed roughly $1.5T in value since June 25
Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, and the Roundhill Memory ETF are all down more than 20% from recent highs. The move is largely profit-taking after historic run-ups — Micron +245% YTD, SanDisk +635% YTD, Western Digital +235% YTD — rather than a change in the underlying supply-demand picture.
Capital Markets
SK Hynix’s $29B Nasdaq ADR, debuting July 10 as SKHY, would be the largest ADR listing on record and the first US listing for a Korean memory major
The offering covers up to 17.79M new shares (~2.5% of shares outstanding), sized at roughly 45.45T won. Proceeds are earmarked for the $4B Indiana packaging plant and continued buildout of the Yongin cluster, which begins coming online in 2027.
HBM Supply
HBM4’s entire 2026 output is already sold out to hyperscalers; UBS pegs SK Hynix at roughly 70% of Nvidia’s Rubin-platform allocation
HBM3E remains the 2026 workhorse at 12-hi stacks, up to 48GB and 896–1,280 GB/s per stack. Samsung has been shipping HBM4 commercially since February and expects HBM sales to triple versus 2025, while Micron continues narrowing the gap with both Korean suppliers.
Capacity
Intel’s CEO says there’s “no relief until 2028” as Micron’s US ID1 fab stays offline until 2027 and industry capex discipline limits bit-supply growth
DRAM-related equipment investment is projected to top $116B in 2026 (+9%) and $79B cumulatively from 2026–2028, but most of that spend goes to process upgrades and hybrid bonding rather than new capacity. Lead times remain extended past 30 weeks across most segments.