Market Context
DDR5 Market Trend
↑ Surging
SK Hynix pivots capacity to DDR5; margins now approaching 90%
DDR4 Spot Trend
↑ Rising
Mainstream 8Gb up 3.57% WoW to $34.8; supply tightening further
HBM Availability
Sold Out
SK Hynix slowing HBM4 ramp; HBM3E dominates through 2026
Supplier Outlook
Record Q2
Samsung 86T won OP expected July 7; SK Hynix 63T won in late July
Price Trends$/GB — Trailing 18 Months + 18-Month Forecast
DDR5
HBM3E ÷10
DDR4
Shaded regions = optimistic/pessimistic confidence bands
HBM3E scaled ÷10 for legibility (actual: ~$30/GB)
Sources: TrendForce, spot market indices, DM estimates
Spot PricesDRAM SKU Pricing — Week of Jun 23
DDR5 · 16Gb · 4800/5600 MT/s
$2.02/GB ($4.04)
▲ +5.2% MoM
Prior month: $3.84
SK Hynix DDR5 pivot deepens supply constraint; branded demand at multi-year highs
DDR5 · 32Gb · 6400 MT/s
$2.12/GB ($8.48)
▲ +5.5% MoM
Prior month: $8.04
Server DRAM; Q2 contract +58–63% QoQ; Micron locked to 3–5 yr LTAs
DDR4 · 8Gb (1Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$4.34/GB ($34.8)
▲ +3.57% WoW
Prior week: $33.6
Post-strike bounce now sustained; DDR5 migration pulling supply from commodity pool
DDR4 · 16Gb (2Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$3.88/GB ($62.0)
▲ +2.7% WoW
Prior week: $60.4
Enterprise procurement cautious but constrained; spot and contract divergence widening
LPDDR5X · Mobile · Q3 Contract
~$22/GB
▲ +10% QoQ
Q2 baseline: ~$20/GB
Smartphone brands cutting production counts; avg DRAM per device still growing to 8.5 GB
HBM4 · 36GB 12-High Stack
~$500/stack
■ Allocation Only
All 3 suppliers fully booked; HBM3E 2/3 of shipments
Samsung HBM4 hits $1B revenue in 4 months; SK Hynix slowing HBM4 ramp for DDR5
Supplier IntelSamsung · SK Hynix · Micron
S
Samsung
KRX: 005930
Q2 earnings guidance due ~July 7: consensus projects 86T won operating profit (+1,740% YoY), shattering Q1 record of 57.2T won set 90 days earlier
HBM4 revenue crosses $1B milestone in just 4 months of commercial shipment; on pace for $1.2B+ by June end with 4nm base die
Leads DRAM revenue share at 38.6% in Q1 vs. SK Hynix 28.8%, even as SK Hynix commands higher operating margin at 72%
H
SK Hynix
KRX: 000660
Market cap briefly overtook Samsung on June 22 — ending a 26-year streak — before both fell 12%+ in KOSPI crash; SK Hynix still +340% YTD
Slowing HBM4 ramp to harvest DDR5 margins (now ~90% OP); retooling HBM3E lines for DDR5 production; 3-yr DDR5 LTA signed with Microsoft
Filed Form F-1 with SEC on June 24 for Nasdaq listing as SKHY — up to 17.79M new shares (~2.5%); trading targeted July 10, 2026
M
Micron
NASDAQ: MU
FQ3 revenue $41.46B (+345.7% YoY), smashing $35.84B consensus; secures 16 Strategic Customer Agreements guaranteeing ~$100B through 2030
3–5 year supply contracts now standard across Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix — structural shift in market power from buyers to suppliers
Blowout results lift Samsung +5.3%, SK Hynix +13.1% on Korean market; brokerage consensus now targeting 100T won Samsung Q2 OP
IndustryBroader DRAM & Memory News
TrendForce
DDR5 contract prices: +90–95% QoQ in Q1, +58–63% QoQ in Q2; SK Hynix DDR5 pivot keeps supply constrained through mid-2027
TrendForce expected Q3 2026 to mark the beginning of price relief, but SK Hynix’s decision to retool HBM3E lines for DDR5 rather than ramp HBM4 sustains the shortage. Normalization now projected for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 at the earliest, contingent on AI capex trajectory.
KOSPI Crash
KOSPI fell nearly 10% on June 23 — largest point drop on record — as Samsung + SK Hynix now represent >50% of index weight; circuit breakers triggered twice
The crash was a deleveraging event, not a structural break: Peter Kim of KB Securities noted overcapacity is “at least a couple of years” away. Concentration risk in the KOSPI has become a systemic issue as memory stocks dominate the index, amplifying moves in both directions.
Supply Chain
HBM now consumes 23% of total DRAM wafers; each HBM GB uses ~3x the wafer area of DDR5, structurally compressing conventional DRAM supply
New wafer capacity from SK Hynix M15X (Cheongju) and Micron’s Idaho fab won’t add meaningful supply until mid-2027. Samsung’s Pyeongtaek P5 is not projected to reach production until 2028. SEMI reports 300mm fab equipment spending up 18% to $133B in 2026.
Morgan Stanley
Memory price appreciation — across all categories, not just HBM — is the primary semiconductor earnings driver this cycle; SK Hynix DDR5 pivot is strategically coherent
Morgan Stanley analysis validates SK Hynix’s decision: with DDR5 margins approaching 90% and supply severely constrained, harvesting conventional DRAM is more immediately accretive than racing Samsung to HBM4 share. Goldman Sachs estimates SK Hynix holds 60–70% of HBM4 volume for Nvidia’s Rubin platform regardless.
Counterpoint
Global memory market (DRAM + NAND) to exceed $1.5T by 2027; server share rising from <50% in 2025 to 57% — AI infrastructure becoming the primary demand engine
The structural shift in demand composition means memory pricing will remain anchored to AI capex cycles rather than consumer refresh cycles. Enterprise buyers who plan procurement assuming a return to pre-AI DRAM pricing before mid-2027 should revise their budgets upward.