Market Context
DDR5 Market Trend
↑ Surging
Branded demand active; suppliers raising quotes weekly
DDR4 Market Trend
↓ Volatile
Strike scare spiked prices 20%, now fading on deal news
HBM Availability
Sold Out
All 3 suppliers at zero spare capacity through 2026
Supply–Demand Gap
~40% shortfall
Big Tech now funding supplier fabs to secure allocation
Price Trends$/GB — Trailing 18 Months + 18-Month Forecast
DDR5
HBM3E ÷10
DDR4
Shaded regions = optimistic/pessimistic confidence bands
HBM3E scaled ÷10 for legibility (actual: ~$30/GB)
Sources: TrendForce, spot market indices, DM estimates
Spot PricesDRAM SKU Pricing — Week of May 19
DDR5 · 16Gb · 4800/5600 MT/s
$1.92/GB ($3.84)
▲ +3.8% MoM
Prior month: $3.70
PC DRAM mainstream; branded demand active, suppliers raising quotes
DDR5 · 32Gb · 6400 MT/s
$2.01/GB ($8.04)
▲ +4.7% MoM
Prior month: $7.68
Server DRAM; contract +58–63% QoQ as hyperscalers deepen LTAs
DDR4 · 8Gb (1Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$4.00/GB ($32.0)
▼ −0.62% WoW
Prior week: $32.20
Strike scare drove 20% spike in May; softening as deal reached
DDR4 · 16Gb (2Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$3.69/GB ($58.9)
▼ −0.94% WoW
Prior week: $59.5
Volatile; eTT DDR4 weakening as procurement remains cautious
LPDDR5X · Mobile · Q2 Contract
~$20/GB
▲ +78–83% QoQ
Q1 baseline: ~$11/GB
Mobile flagship; Samsung aggressive pricing, SK Hynix gradual hikes
HBM4 · 36GB 12-High Stack
~$500/stack
▲ Allocation Only
All 3 suppliers fully booked through 2026
Nvidia Vera Rubin primary pull; Big Tech funding fabs for capacity
Supplier IntelSamsung · SK Hynix · Micron
S
Samsung
KRX: 005930
Strike averted: 48K-member union suspends 18-day walkout after last-minute deal links bonuses to operating profit
Q1 memory ASP surged 146% vs. 2025 full-year avg; chip division profit est. 81.2T won in Q2 (+1,636% YoY)
HBM4E first samples slated for Q2; advancing on 4nm base die via Samsung Foundry
H
SK Hynix
KRX: 000660
Big Tech funding fabs: Alphabet, Meta, MSFT offer to bankroll $23B Yongin cluster and EUV equipment
Q1 DRAM ASP +60% QoQ, NAND +70%; R&D spending surges 68% YoY to 2.55T won as HBM4E prep accelerates
Confidential US ADR filing targets H2 2026 listing; up to $14B raise to fund Indiana plant + Yongin expansion
M
Micron
NASDAQ: MU
FQ2 revenue $23.9B (+196% YoY), 75% gross margin; Q3 guide: $33.5B at 81% margin — all-time records
Opens permanent Seoul HBM design lab; “Principal Architect” roles at $214K target Samsung/Hynix engineers
All 2026 HBM capacity sold out; HBM4 36GB 12H volume shipping for Nvidia Vera Rubin since Q1
IndustryBroader DRAM & Memory News
TrendForce
Mobile DRAM contract prices: LPDDR4X +70–75% QoQ, LPDDR5X +78–83% QoQ in Q2 — smartphone makers cutting production
Consecutive quarters of steep increases are forcing brands to reduce total 2026 production. Average smartphone DRAM capacity still grows to 8.5 GB (+10% YoY) but high-capacity 16 GB configs are being trimmed as cost pressure mounts.
TrendForce
Q1 2026 memory prices grew ~100% QoQ — roughly double the initially projected growth; supercycle confirmed
Samsung’s average memory ASP jumped 146% vs. 2025 full-year average. SK Hynix DRAM ASP rose mid-60% QoQ. The combination of HBM diversion, AI capex, and supply discipline is producing the steepest upcycle in DRAM history.
Nomura
Samsung could rally 110%, SK Hynix 117% from current levels — 12-month PTs of 590K won and 4M won respectively
Nomura argues the memory supercycle has further to run as structural HBM demand, zero spare capacity, and Big Tech capex commitments create a multi-year pricing floor that traditional cyclical models underestimate.
Seoul Econ.
Big Tech moves beyond LTAs: hyperscalers offering to fund tens of trillions of won in fab infrastructure directly
Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft have proposed direct equity-like investment in SK Hynix’s Yongin cluster and EUV equipment purchases. The shift from buyer to co-investor signals memory has become a strategic asset class for AI infrastructure.
CNBC
Memory chip stocks driving global indices to records; Samsung + SK Hynix produce two-thirds of global supply
The AI memory trade has become the single largest sector driver in Korean equities. Combined, the two companies account for ~65% of DRAM and ~90% of HBM output, creating an unprecedented concentration of pricing power.