Market Context
DDR5 Market Trend
↑ Rising
TrendForce’s 3Q26 conventional DRAM contract forecast still holds at +13–18% QoQ; Micron guides its Sept 30 fiscal Q4 print to roughly $50B revenue and ~86% gross margin, a signal pricing power is holding into the print
DDR4 Spot Trend
↑ New Record
Mainstream DDR4 (1Gx8, 3200) spot ticked to a fresh high near $44.54 this week, extending the multi-week record run as legacy wafers keep shifting to HBM production
HBM Capacity
Expanding, Still Tight
Samsung is set to break ground this month on a KRW 6T ($4.3B) HBM fab at Onyang, with Pyeongtaek P5 reportedly weighing a third dedicated HBM line; Samsung’s HBM4 yield has climbed to ~80%, up from under 60% at February’s launch
Supplier Outlook
Watch Micron, Sept 30
Micron reports fiscal Q4 results Sept 30 with the stock still ~22% below its June 25 all-time high of $1,213; the print doubles as the market’s next referendum on the shortage thesis versus Michael Burry’s 2028 oversupply short
Price Trends$/GB — Trailing 18 Months + 18-Month Forecast
DDR5
HBM3E ÷10
DDR4
Shaded regions = optimistic/pessimistic confidence bands
HBM3E scaled ÷10 for legibility (actual: ~$30/GB)
Sources: TrendForce, spot market indices, DM estimates
Spot PricesDRAM SKU Pricing — Week of Aug 31
DDR5 · 16Gb · 4800/5600 MT/s
$2.40/GB ($4.79)
▲ Up WoW
Prior week: $4.59
DM estimate anchored to TrendForce’s mainstream spot series; weekly updates through the summer described “DDR5 spot momentum” continuing as branded module demand stays firm into 3Q26
DDR5 · 32Gb · 6400 MT/s
$2.51/GB ($10.02)
▲ Up WoW
Prior week: $9.61
Server RDIMM stays sold out through 2027; TrendForce still flags total RDIMM bit supply growing just 15–20% YoY versus faster server CPU shipment growth
DDR4 · 8Gb (1Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$5.57/GB ($44.54)
▲ New Record
Prior record: $42.45 (Aug 7)
Mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200 spot broke its three-week-old record this week as legacy supply stays structurally tight while the three majors keep redirecting wafers to HBM
DDR4 · 16Gb (2Gx8) · 3200 MT/s
$5.75/GB ($92.02)
▲ New Record
Prior: $78.79
Tracks the 8Gb SKU’s record run; desktop DDR5 retail continues to run well above the DDR4 legacy tier as CXMT’s rising China output has yet to reach export spot channels at scale
LPDDR5X · Mobile · Q3 Contract
~$25.50/GB
■ Flat QoQ
Prior: ~$25.50/GB
Smartphone vendors stay conservative on procurement per TrendForce as handset prices keep absorbing higher LPDRAM costs; CXMT’s LPDDR5X entry remains a China supply wildcard
HBM4 · 36GB 12-High Stack
~$500/stack
■ Allocation Only
2026–2027 output sold out
Micron says it has completed price-and-volume agreements for its entire calendar-2026 HBM supply; Samsung is breaking ground this month on a new Onyang HBM fab to help ease the allocation bottleneck into 2027
Supplier IntelSamsung · SK Hynix · Micron
S
Samsung
KRX: 005930
Set to break ground this month on a KRW 6 trillion (~$4.3B) HBM fab at its Onyang campus, with Pyeongtaek’s P5 line reportedly weighing a shift to a third dedicated HBM production line as expansion accelerates
HBM4 yield has climbed to roughly 80%, up from under 60% at February’s mass-production launch, closing the qualification gap with SK Hynix ahead of broader HBM4 ramp
Still led global DRAM revenue with 38% share in Q2, but ceded commodity ground to China’s CXMT as capacity keeps rotating toward higher-margin HBM
H
SK Hynix
KRX: 000660
Held 25% of Q2 global DRAM revenue, second behind Samsung, as CXMT’s rise to 10% share squeezed the commodity mid-tier both Korean majors have been vacating
Remains the most HBM-concentrated of the three majors heading into Nvidia’s Rubin platform ramp, the position that drove its sharper Aug 27–28 rally off Nvidia’s own memory-bottleneck commentary
Carries the same 2028 oversupply bear case Michael Burry has staked publicly against Micron, though SK Hynix’s HBM weighting gives it the most direct leverage to either outcome of the three suppliers
M
Micron
NASDAQ: MU
Reports fiscal Q4 results after the close on Sept 30, guiding roughly $50B in revenue and ~86% gross margin — the quarter Wall Street is treating as the next referendum on the memory supercycle’s durability
Traded in a narrow $962–$1,018 range in early September, still about 22% below its June 25 all-time high of $1,213, as investors wait for the Sept 30 print to settle the shortage-bulls-versus-Burry debate
Held 24% of Q2 global DRAM revenue, essentially tied with SK Hynix, as CXMT’s ascent pushed the three majors’ combined share below 90% for the first time in more than a decade
IndustryBroader DRAM & Memory News
Market Share
China’s CXMT captured 10% of global DRAM revenue in Q2 2026, up from 4% a year earlier, pushing the Samsung–SK Hynix–Micron oligopoly below 90% combined for the first time in more than a decade — roughly two years ahead of Counterpoint Research and UBS projections
This is the most structurally significant memory story of the week: the majors’ own decision to chase HBM margin over commodity DRAM volume created the vacuum CXMT is now filling, and it happened faster than the analyst community expected.
Earnings Preview
Micron will report fiscal Q4 results after the close on Sept 30, guiding roughly $50B in revenue and ~86% gross margin, with the stock still about 22% below its June 25 all-time high
This print is the next real test of whether Wall Street believes the memory-price cycle is durable or sides with the oversupply bears — guidance of this scale, if confirmed, would be hard for the skeptics to explain away.
Capacity Decision
Samsung is set to break ground this month on a KRW 6 trillion HBM fab at its Onyang campus, with Pyeongtaek’s P5 line reportedly weighing a shift to a third dedicated HBM production line
New fab construction takes years to translate into shipped wafers, so this doesn’t relieve near-term tightness — but it is the clearest signal yet that Samsung is underwriting a multi-year HBM demand forecast, not just chasing the current cycle.
Spot Price
Mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200 spot broke its own three-week-old record this week, extending a run that has now outlasted several forecasts calling for near-term relief
Legacy DDR4 keeps setting records precisely because it isn’t where the majors are investing — every dollar of new capex is chasing HBM margin, leaving DDR4 supply to shrink into demand rather than grow to meet it.
Yield Progress
Samsung’s HBM4 yield has climbed to roughly 80%, up from under 60% at February’s mass-production launch, narrowing the qualification gap with SK Hynix ahead of the broader HBM4 ramp
Yield improvement is the quiet variable behind every HBM allocation headline — a supplier that can convert more of its wafer starts into sellable stacks effectively adds capacity without building a single new fab.